While this may endanger my "Gold" rating in his blogroll, with this post about the race for Prince William County Chairman, Ben Tribbett goes from "frequently sensible --- if Liberal --- political analyst," to "in-the-bag adjunct to Democrat campaigns." "Toss-up"? "Slight-lean GOP"? The last race had the GOP nominee getting 70% of the vote. The "brand name" alone makes this race presumptively "Solid GOP."
Ben is a better and more reliable read for those nine or ten months a year when he's not trying to get Dems elected. Though his site remains useful on a "Know Thine Enemy" theory.
And it's still a damn sight better than Raising Dough... er, "Raising Kaine."
8 comments:
James, I think that Stewart right now has an advantage in this race but no way he gets anything near 70% of the vote. No way.
The Pandak campaign needs to get moving and do something impressive to have a chance, but Stewart is not Connaughton. No matter what you think of Connaughton he actually managed to bridge the party divide pretty well. Stewart not so much.
This race at the moment is straight down party lines with some on either side of the aisle crossing over and the small Independent camp kind of waffling.
I would agree that 70% would be unrealistic (Pandak is not the buffoon that Coplen is), but I wasn't saying that Corey could expect that same percentage. My point was that Ben has never been particularly realistic in analyzing this race based upon prior returns.
I think you are right about Ben being in the bag when it comes to getting Democrats elected. I think ever since he started taking money from Jim Webb when it came to advertising, things have gone downhill for NLS. I took him off my links because I just can't stand the stuff he puts up there now.
I don't see a huge crossover in Stewart v. Pandak right now- and I think PWC will be fairly close in the Senate race. What's the problem with S-Lean GOP?
I take issue on two points, Ben. First, the toss-up rating was never legitimate, based upon prior returns. Second, in light of prior returns, Pandak's extended absence, and her utter failure to articulate, well, any kind of vision, the most recent ranking downplays even the limited point to which the race has developed.
As for "a huge crossover," I think you're presuming that the narrow Kaine vote is Solid D vote. That reasoning is every bit as untenable as assuming that Chairman Sean's 70% was a solid R vote. My impression of the ratings was that they reflect trends. Perhaps I presume too much.
It is based on prior returns- but also on other things that are happening. The DPVA has said it wants to pump $100,000+ into this race while RPV seems totally disinterested. Also, rumors are circulating of a lot of money coming to Pandak from Connolly who wants to run for Congress in PW in 08. Given how she is going to outspend Corey, but the County has a lean to the GOP in most elections, I think slight-lean GOP is totally reasonable.
Ben, thanks for coming over here and contributing to a civilized discussion of merit on this subject. This is why I started visiting your site, because (despite my tendency at this time to agree with Jim on this point) you often have excellent analysis of the politics behind a race, something I've never been good at.
At the risk of being accused of seeking a higher place on his blogroll, Charles, Ben is to be commended for being good-natured about someone twisting his tail, harkening back to the days when one could disagree without being disagreeable.'Course, the same cannot be said about most of his commenters. But he's hardly responsible for those.
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